On estimates and averages for franchise sales

 

Nick

Is there any way I can compute the average gross sales of a franchise using a franchisor's financial reports?


From franchise attorney Jeff Haff

Dennis:
It is a VERY dangerous exercise to estimate anything.  It is even more dangerous to "estimate and average."  For example, in 1960 the Philadelphia team had a basketball game where they scored around 160 points and played 8 guys.  So, the "average" guy got around 20 points. 

Well, that was also the night that Wilt Chamberlain scored 100.  No one else got 20.  Had you bet money that one particular player would get at least 20, you had an 87.5% chance of losing.  You really do not want the "average" sales what you want is the "median" sales figure.  There is no way to figure that out without data from every single franchisee.

To answer your question, however, you COULD do a mathematical calculation to get an estimate of the average sales.

1) Read the proposed contract and find out the royalty percentage.

2) Find a line on the financial statement that identifies royalty receipts from franchisees (the UFOC has financial statements and they often break this figure out).

3) Read the UFOC's section that sets forth the number of existing franchisees per year.

OK, so you have the percentage each franchisee pays (say 5%) you have the number of franchisees (say 100) and you have total franchisor revenue from royalties (say $1,000,000). 

The average received per franchisee is $10,000 ($1,000,000 divided by 100). $10,000 divided by .05 (the royalty rate) equals $200,000.  So, your franchisee average revenue is $200,000.

This calculation is so fraught with error that I can recommend it for only to check on how POORLY a franchise system is doing.  If the system is bringing in $300,000 a year in royalty revenue and it has 1,000 franchisees, the franchisor is clearly lying to you if it says that all of its franchisees are doing well.

I apologize if my math is poor.
Jeff Haff

From franchise attorney Warren Lewis

Dennis:
I agree with Jeffrey's math and generally agree with his observations about relying on "averages."  It is helpful to calculate an "average" unit revenue number, but you should not assume that most franchisees' revenues equal or exceed the average, or that your revenues will equal or exceed the average.
Warren Lewis